Can the Big 12 remain viable

[HFCS]

The reason why it’s dead is because of the report from CBS - that with with them leaving, the language in the TV contract states conference TV earnings can/will drop accordingly. When the per school number drops from $35 mil to as low as $9 mil, it’s over. And adding BYU, UCF, Houston, and/or Memphis isn’t going to help that number. It’s why I look at people that insist that we should have added those schools when we had the chance like they’re stupid. More members might have kept the conference stable, but it wouldn’t have kept UT and OU from leaving, and it wouldn’t have solved the problem that the conference isn’t worth Jack **** without them.

I agree. It was small details that maybe mattered in small detailed ways.

We told Louisville to pound sand but the ACC added them shortly after. That's a little micro argument. Not something that would have been game changing.

Replacing or moving on without Nebraska, Colorado and Missouri is radically different than replacing Texas/OU/A&M.

There's no reason in 2021 that Nebraska on its own as a free agent is some juggernaut compared to WVU or BYU. At some point Army and Minnesota were the names of college football.

 

[chadly82]

All the nopes

 

[G-Rock]

If you needed any more proof, the MWC and AAC are fighting over the carcass of the B12.

 

[MartyFine]

No. This is the last year of the Big 12. Media rights are going to be a fraction of what they were after ESPN/FOX get to reopen those deals due to a membership change.

Doesn’t the rest of the Big 12 measure their damages based on Texas and OU’s media rights throughout the length of the agreement under the GOR?

 

[Tornado man]

Bill Snyder says the Big 12 will be fine.

 

[Bestaluckcy]

Bill Snyder says the Big 12 will be fine.
[/QUOTE

Its fortunate to have longevity, it’s unfortunate if senility arrives.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Doesn’t the rest of the Big 12 measure their damages based on Texas and OU’s media rights throughout the length of the agreement under the GOR?

The remaining schools, if the league still exists, get to split Texas and OU's shares but those shares are going to be far less than they used to be because ESPN/FOX can reopen the contract and the league is obviously far less valuable from TV standpoint without the two biggest draws.

 

[MartyFine]

The remaining schools, if the league still exists, get to split Texas and OU's shares but those shares are going to be far less than they used to be because ESPN/FOX can reopen the contract and the league is obviously far less valuable from TV standpoint without the two biggest draws.

So Texas and OU will have no media rights until 2025 in the SEC?

 

[1UNI2ISU]

So Texas and OU will have no media rights until 2025 in the SEC?

I don't think they make the move unless they were sure there wasn't going to be a Big 12 to maintain those rights.

 

[NodawayRiverClone]

No. This is the last year of the Big 12. Media rights are going to be a fraction of what they were after ESPN/FOX get to reopen those deals due to a membership change.

OU and Tx say they will honor he GOR, meaning they don't want to pay the league for 4 years. If it takes a vote of a majority of teams honoring the GOR to dissolve the Big 12, then the other 8 can string OU and TX out a couple years or more - a game of brinksmanship. Tx and OU say they are staying and the rest say fine, we'll play it out and see what happens.

 

[swiacy]

Add France just for basketball and only if Texas A&M approves. Carry on.

 

[usedcarguy]

I'm going to call a little BS on this UCF article.

You can't just subtract the Texas and OU game every single week and assume the other games would be on the exact same network at the exact same time slot.

To his credit he did mention UCF's unbeaten run as the reason for AAC viewership increase.

To some extent attendance at these games reflects actual viewership, not markets, but actual viewers. Every AAC school put 20-45K less fans in the stands for every game in 2019 (last year of fair attendance comparisons) than Iowa State did. There's a correlation to people actually watching on TV and actually going to games.

When Big 12 teams are doubling or tripling the game attendance, they aren't getting smoked on real eyeballs actual viewership.

I didn't even mention that I'm sure tickets are cheaper at AAC venues. If ticket prices were the same you'd likely see even greater disparity in fan interest, butts in the seats and real viewerships.

It's not BS at all. It's reality. While in stadium attendance is a sign of a strong brand and puts money in the pocket of the AD, it has no effect on TV revenue.

What the numbers in that article state are not the AAC's strength, but rather just how weak we are without OU and UT. UCF got $7.5M from the AAC for 2019. I would suspect a league with our leftovers and their best schools would probably fetch $10-15M per year per school. You can do the math as to what the shortfall would be from what we have now. Point being, the point of the author while true is moot. Well, mostly moot. Moot with the exception being that they can probably fetch more money with Big 12 orphans.

 

[AlaCyclone]

To all of the NOs:

If the B1G says No thanks, and the Pac says No thanks, it will either be Big Xii + a few teams or a move to the American, MWC OR worse!

Nobody is saying that they want ISU to stay in a re-configured Big Xii as a first option, but it might end up being one of only 3 available options. Personally I think a re-configured Big Xii is better than the American or the MWC.

That being said, I want the B1G (1st) or the Pac (2nd)! If those fall through, I would rather be in a re-configured Big Xii (with some of our mates) than move to either the American or MWC.

 

[cycloneworld]

just when ISU is becoming a factor

ISU can stay relevant competitively anywhere.

But what’s terrifying is that we’ll likely lose enough money that we won’t be able to keep Campbell and keep expanding and improving facilities. That’s what should keep fans up at night…not wins and losses.

 

[Gonzo]

To all of the NOs:

If the B1G says No thanks, and the Pac says No thanks, it will either be Big Xii + a few teams or a move to the American, MWC OR worse!

Nobody is saying that they want ISU to stay in a re-configured Big Xii as a first option, but it might end up being one of only 3 available options. Personally I think a re-configured Big Xii is better than the America or the MWC.

That being said, I want the B1G (1st) or the Pac (2nd)! If those fall through, I would rather be in a re-configured Big Xii (with some of our mates) than move to either the American or MWC.

I think you're right on. No ruling out B1G or Pac offer yet but if not, pull some of the top AAC/MWC schools over for a reformed Big 12. Not ideal, but with ISU, OSU, KU, Baylor and others, hell maybe see if you can get BYU. Still would be a much stronger conference than AAC or MWC.

 

[usedcarguy]

I don't think they make the move unless they were sure there wasn't going to be a Big 12 to maintain those rights.

Keep in mind that it's likely this got leaked far sooner than was originally intended. In addition, they might be getting enough extra money that the pain isn't that significant. OU can probably find boosters who will write the check in about two minutes, UT in about two seconds.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

This is what I think the most viable Big 12 would look like if the 8 leftovers stuck together.



In my view the most valuable potential additions are pretty obviously BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF. The only other school that might be close to those four is Memphis but I think there is a pretty clear cut top four. BYU I think adds the most value which is why we would put up with such a geographic outlier (but replacing them on this map with Memphis actually makes a pretty good looking conference on the map).

I would expect East and West divisions, with Baylor/Houston and Tech/TCU in each division respectively. This way, every school would have two Texas schools in its division for recruiting, and each division would include either the DFW or Houston metro.

Baylor, Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and probably Iowa State would make up the East. That leaves BYU, Texas Tech, TCU, KU, K-State, and Oklahoma State in the West.

ISU and K-State would have a protected crossover rivalry game. Same with Baylor-TCU and Tech-Houston (and everybody else, but IDK how they would shake out).

This league would keep its Autonomy Five distinction (for now) and I believe would get payouts that are significantly larger than the American and still quite a bit less than the Pac-12 or ACC. And obviously, they would be dwarfed by what the B1G and especially the SEC would be distributing.

 

[DarkStar]

Since we are just spitballing here...

Big XII bowl tie-ins, especially half ownership of the Sugar Bowl, and NCAA Autonomy status should be enough to get AAC teams to head our way.

Any list of teams poached from the AAC must include Navy. Broadcast rights to the Army Navy game are huge. They are probably the most valuable property in the AAC.

 

[CydeOut]

I say be aggressive, we know what the floor is (Big 12/MWC/AAC merger-thing), hand out the sweetheart deal to 2 or 4 others. I posted this in another thread:

- Let OU/Tex walk
- Propose what we offered OU/TEX (1.5 shares immediately), highlight easier path to playoff to (looking for 2 or 4):

• USC
• Oregon
• ND
• A&M
• Any other worthy college of your choice

- Fight legal battle to say GOR has been changed with TEX/OU leaving and look to renegotiate TV rights with new teams right away.

Some school(s) may appreciate what OU/TEX didn't (money, power, easy path to playoff).

 

[jdoggivjc]

I say be aggressive, we know what the floor is (Big 12/MWC/AAC merger-thing), hand out the sweetheart deal to 2 or 4 others. I posted this in another thread:

- Let OU/Tex walk
- Propose what we offered OU/TEX (1.5 shares immediately), highlight easier path to playoff to (looking for 2 or 4):

• USC
• Oregon
• ND
• A&M
• Any other worthy college of your choice

- Fight legal battle to say GOR has been changed with TEX/OU leaving and look to renegotiate TV rights with new teams right away.

Some school(s) may appreciate what OU/TEX didn't (money, power, easy path to playoff).

FFS.

A&M might be beyond pissed that UT is coming, but they're not leaving the sure thing that is the SEC. They're certainly not leaving that kind of security for a Big 12 that's fighting to survive, and one that's likely to pay half - or less - of what the SEC will be offering.

ND is tied to the hip with the ACC and isn't coming.

USC and Oregon aren't coming to a conference that in time their own home conference will be picking the carcass of.

This post is what is called "delusion". ISU has much better odds of joining the SEC than anything you suggest.