Football

Outside the men’s room: C’mon, what are the odds?!?!

By Kirk Haaland, CycloneFanatic.com Contributor

If this article sucks don’t blame me. Blame Ken Miller.  As the best bookie in Iowa (as proclaimed by this blog) and sports talk show host for 1460 KXnO, he has spoken.  I have provided him with a list of prop bets pertaining to the upcoming Iowa State football season.  He has made the odds and I will provide the subpar discussion.  (For the record, Ken is not accepting bets on these numbers.  If you send him money he will pocket it.)

The favorites

Let’s start off with on a bit of a painful note that could possibly be turned in to some glee.  It’s sad how long it’s been since Iowa State last scored a touchdown against Iowa (second quarter of the 2006 game), 14 quarters to be exact.  That was a long time ago…I was a newlywed in an apartment with no kids, or dog and Cyclone Fanatic was in its infant stages.  I’m now saddled with a mortgage; surrounded by two more girls (daughters), have a 120-pound golden retriever (Clyde) to deal with. Oh yeah…Cyclone Fanatic sure has grown up.  Enough babbling, here they are:

  • Iowa State will score at least two touchdowns against Iowa…2-1.  Thank you sweet merciless Lord, I can’t handle four more quarters being added to that streak.  Now we just have to hope that it is as likely as Ken believes.
  • Iowa State will score more points against its non-conference opponents that it gives up against Oklahoma and Texas combined…2-1.
  • Jack Trice Stadium will average more than 50,000 in attendance for the season…3-1.
  • Alexander Robinson will rush for more than 1,500 yards…4-1.

The “it could happens”

Here are the borderline bets, the in-between bets that will be the best indicator on how successful the 2010 Cyclones really were.  Headlined by arguably the biggest regular season game in Iowa State history when our long-time, dominant neighbors to the west make what will likely be their last trip ever to Jack Trice Stadium.  (I actually just thought of that…perhaps that is only true outside of the Missouri game in 2004 and the Kansas game in 2005 that would’ve won the division for ISU had they been able to win.)

For a frame of reference check with how difficult it is to beat these odds; Iowa State’s odds to win at Nebraska last year was 7.5-1.

Iowa State will beat Nebraska…20-1. Iowa state has taken more Mike Tyson upper cuts to the chin from Nebraska than anybody but thanks to last year’s remarkable upset in Lincoln, the Cyclones can accomplish something that has not happened in more than 30 years…win two straight over the Huskers.  That’d be a nice way to send them to the Big Ten.

For a frame of reference check with how difficult it is to beat these odds; Iowa State’s odds to win at Nebraska last year was 7.5-1.

  • Iowa State will beat Nebraska…20-1. Iowa state has taken more Mike Tyson upper cuts to the chin from Nebraska than anybody but thanks to last year’s remarkable upset in Lincoln, the Cyclones can accomplish something that has not happened in more than 30 years…win two straight over the Huskers.  That’d be a nice way to send them to the Big Ten.
  • Iowa State will have a first team all-conference performer…8-1. (David Sims, I’m looking at you)
  • Iowa State will win five games…10-1. (I’d throw $100 on that one.)
  • Iowa State will beat Iowa for the first time since 2007…15-1.
  • Iowa State will be bowl eligible for the second straight year and win six games…20-1.

Mine That Bird takes notice

The 2009 Kentucky Derby winner did so at the odds of 50.6-1.  In the long and storied history of the Kentucky Derby only two other winners have won against similar or worse odds, Giacomo in 2005 and Donerail in 1913—less than two years after the sinking of the Titanic.  What bets fall into this realm?

  • Iowa State will win a bowl game for a second straight year for the first time in school history…30-1.
  • Iowa State will win seven games…40-1.
  • Austen Arnaud will score 20 total TD’s…50-1.
  • Iowa State will beat Texas in Austin…75-1.
  • Iowa State will beat Oklahoma in Norman…80-1.
  • Iowa State will win eight games…80-1.
  • Alexander Robinson will win the Heisman Trophy…100-1. (More favorable than I would’ve guessed…I think)

Lloyd: What do you think the chances are of a guy like you and a girl like me… ending up together?

Mary: Well, Lloyd, that’s difficult to say. I mean, we don’t really…

Lloyd: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?

Mary: Not good.

Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?

Mary: I’d say more like one out of a million.

Lloyd: So you’re telling me there’s a chance… *YEAH!*

The Longest of the long shots can be found here.

  • Iowa State will win the Big 12 North…200-1.
  • Iowa State will win the Big 12…500-1.
  • Iowa State will qualify for a BCS game with an at-large bid…1,000-1.
  • Iowa State will win a BCS game…1,250-1.
  • Iowa State will beat Texas in Austin or Oklahoma in Norma fueled by forcing eight turnovers…10,000-1.

K

Kirk Haaland

administrator

Kirk has been a contributor at Cyclone Fanatic since the fall of 2009 and is a lifelong Cyclone fan. He eventually started his own website, enCYCLONEpedia.com, where he cultivated an interest in statistical analysis and historical Iowa State football and basketball data. In 2014, Kirk came to Fanatic and housed his works here. In 2015 he launched a new website, cfbanalytics.com, as the co-founder. There you can find in depth analysis of all things involving advanced statistical analysis in college football for every FBS program. Kirk graduated from Iowa State University in 2006 with a degree in Industrial Technology and has worked as a Manufacturing/Quality Engineer ever since. He's married to his wife, Kelley, and has three daughters, Hannah, Hayley, and Kinley (plus his Golden Retriever, Clyde).

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